Second early-release phase begins with 650 prisoners
The latest tranche extends the government’s prison-capacity plan to people serving longer determinate sentences.
Updates
Around 650 prisoners were released in the second tranche on Tuesday. At HMP Durham, inmates cheered as they left, with one man shouting “Yes cuzzie”. (LBC, Sky News)
The Ministry of Justice estimated that 700 prisoners would be released on the first day of the first tranche, which began on 1 October; its estimate for the second tranche on 13 October was 650. The figures were modelled estimates and could differ from the final numbers. (Ministry of Justice, UK Parliament)
About 650 prisoners in England and Wales are due to leave custody early on Tuesday in the second phase of the government’s progression model. The scheme is intended to ease pressure on prisons, but probation staff and victims’ groups have raised concerns about capacity and supervision.
The second tranche covers eligible prisoners serving sentences of up to two and a half years. Under the new rules, some will leave custody after serving one-third of their sentence rather than half, with the remainder served in the community on licence.
Around 700 prisoners left early in the first tranche on 1 October. Ministry of Justice modelling estimates that the second tranche will involve 650 releases, although the department stresses that the figures are rounded projections rather than precise counts.
The progression model is being introduced in ten stages between October 2026 and June 2027. The ministry estimates about 4,500 first-day releases across the programme, while noting that actual numbers may change with new convictions, sentence calculations and disciplinary decisions.
The rules exclude several categories of offender, including people serving sentences for rape, certain child sexual offences, organised child sexual exploitation, unlawful killing and indecent assault. Life prisoners and people serving extended determinate sentences remain outside the model.
Eligible prisoners are expected to spend the rest of their sentence under supervision, with electronic monitoring and other licence conditions used where appropriate. They can be recalled to custody if they breach those conditions or can no longer be safely managed in the community.
The expansion is taking place alongside pressure on probation services. The probation union Napo says the releases have increased the workload of its members, while the Ministry of Justice says it has offered a 5% pay rise and plans to invest £700m to recruit 1,300 additional officers and introduce further digital tools.
Women’s Aid has welcomed the creation of a support package for survivors affected by earlier releases, funded by the Ministry of Justice. The central policy dispute is whether earlier release, backed by supervision and investment, offers a sustainable response to overcrowding or reflects a failure to keep prison capacity and sentencing policy in balance.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The second tranche is estimated to involve about 650 releases on 13 October 2026.
- The progression model moves some releases from the halfway point to one-third of a determinate sentence.
- The government says the policy is needed to manage prison capacity and will use licence conditions and supervision.
- The Ministry of Justice’s published figures are modelled estimates, not final counts.
- Several serious offences and indefinite sentences are excluded.
Left
Arguments Earlier release can be justified when prisons are overcrowded and short custodial terms do little to reduce reoffending. The priority should be proper housing, treatment and probation support in the community rather than using prison as the default response to every lower-level offence.
Values Rehabilitation, social reintegration, proportionality and reducing the harms caused by overcrowded prisons.
Consequences Supporters fear that inadequate community services will turn a potentially constructive reform into a revolving door, while sustained investment could improve both safety and rehabilitation.
Centre
Arguments The capacity problem is real, but release rules should be paired with transparent risk assessment, enforceable licence conditions, independent evaluation and enough probation staff. Exclusions for the most serious offences and regular parliamentary scrutiny offer a possible compromise.
Values Institutional competence, public protection, evidence and a balance between punishment and practical governance.
Consequences The approach may relieve pressure if implementation is properly resourced, but inaccurate forecasts or weak supervision could undermine confidence and produce avoidable recalls.
Right
Arguments People sentenced to custody should normally serve a substantial custodial term, and automatic reductions risk weakening deterrence and public trust. The state should expand prison capacity and ensure victims are properly informed before releasing offenders earlier than expected.
Values Public safety, accountability, punishment and the expectations of victims.
Consequences A tougher approach would require more prison places and public spending, but supporters argue that the cost is preferable to reoffending or the perception that sentences are not being served.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
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The release date, tranche size, legal framework and exclusions are supported by current reporting and Ministry of Justice material. Estimates and stakeholder concerns are clearly labelled as such.
- confirmed About 650 prisoners in England and Wales are due to leave custody in the second tranche on 13 October 2026. — Current BBC report and the Ministry of Justice’s tranche model both identify tranche two as about 650 releases. source
- confirmed The first tranche involved about 700 releases on 1 October. — Reported by the BBC and included in the government’s staged implementation context. source
- confirmed Eligible prisoners may be released after serving one-third of their sentence, with the remainder served on licence. — Set out in the Ministry of Justice explanation of the progression model. source
- confirmed The model is expected to produce about 4,500 first-day releases across ten tranches. — The ministry describes this as a rounded estimate and lists ten tranches totalling 4,500. source
- confirmed Rape, certain child sexual offences, organised child sexual exploitation, unlawful killing and indecent assault are excluded. — Specified in the Ministry of Justice report. source
- confirmed Women’s Aid has a Ministry of Justice-funded support package for survivors affected by the changes. — Women’s Aid describes the support package and its funding arrangements. source
Editor's note
The second-tranche timing and estimated number come from current BBC reporting and the Ministry of Justice model. The 650 figure is a rounded estimate, not a final count; concerns about workload and safety are attributed to unions and support organisations.Sources
More on this in other media
- BBC News — „prisons early release”
- The Guardian — „prisons early release”
- Sky News — „prisons early release”