Report: non-British nationals account for most payroll growth
A Centre for Social Justice analysis says British nationals accounted for one-fifth of the increase since 2014, but the data do not show jobs were taken from them.
Non-British nationals accounted for most of the increase in UK jobs recorded through PAYE between 2014 and the end of 2025, according to a new analysis by the Centre for Social Justice. The report has reopened the debate over migration, welfare and labour supply in the British economy.
The Centre for Social Justice said the number of PAYE payrolled employments rose by about 3.7 million over the period. It attributed 734,000 of that increase to British nationals, 408,000 to EU nationals and about 2.5 million to non-EU nationals.
Those figures describe changes in recorded employments, not a count of people hired into new roles. HM Revenue and Customs says one employee can have more than one payrolled employment, while the figures exclude self-employment and other work outside PAYE.
The nationality categories also need care. HMRC records the nationality reported when some people apply for a National Insurance number, and does not update the record after naturalisation or a change of nationality. The official data therefore include some people who later became British citizens and may classify some workers imperfectly.
The CSJ says most of the change occurred after 2020. Its analysis found that non-EU payroll positions rose by 2.1 million between January 2020 and December 2025, while the number of people receiving out-of-work benefits rose by 2.3 million. The comparison does not establish that one trend caused the other.
The report identifies health and social work as the largest contributor to the increase in non-EU payroll employment, accounting for 29 per cent. Administrative and support services accounted for 16 per cent, accommodation and food services for 12 per cent, and wholesale and retail for 10 per cent.
Official immigration statistics show that work migration has since fallen on some routes. In the year ending March 2026, 42,658 Health and Care Worker visas were issued, 38 per cent fewer than in the previous year, following restrictions on overseas recruitment in social care.
The CSJ argues that governments have relied too heavily on overseas labour while failing to improve domestic skills, health and employment support. The analysis is politically significant, but it is a think-tank interpretation of administrative data rather than evidence that individual vacancies were denied to British citizens.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The CSJ says British nationals accounted for 734,000 of about 3.7 million additional PAYE payrolled employments between 2014 and the end of 2025.
- HMRC says the figures count payrolled employments, exclude self-employment and may include more than one employment for the same person.
- HMRC also warns that nationality records are not updated after naturalisation or a change of nationality.
- The report does not demonstrate that migration caused the rise in out-of-work benefits.
Left
Arguments The figures should not be used to suggest that migrants displaced British workers without stronger evidence. A left perspective would focus on the report’s limits, the value of migrant labour in care and other services, and the need for better pay, training and employment support for everyone already in Britain.
Values Equality, workers’ rights, public services and protection from discrimination.
Consequences Policies centred on cutting migration could worsen staffing pressures, while investment in skills, health and decent work could address worklessness without setting groups of workers against each other.
Centre
Arguments The analysis is a useful warning about the composition of employment growth, but it is not a complete account of the labour market. A centrist approach would combine controlled migration with independent evaluation of skills shortages, stronger domestic training and clearer measures of living standards per person.
Values Evidence, institutional competence, economic stability and practical compromise.
Consequences A balanced policy could reduce reliance on overseas recruitment where domestic supply can be improved while retaining routes that employers and public services demonstrably need.
Right
Arguments The report can be read as evidence that successive governments expanded the workforce through migration instead of improving prospects for people already in Britain. A right perspective would prioritise lower migration, tighter labour-market rules, welfare reform and stronger incentives for employers to recruit and train British workers.
Values National self-government, fairness to taxpayers, labour-market accountability and reduced dependency on the state.
Consequences Lower migration could increase pressure on wages, prices and recruitment in some sectors unless domestic training and welfare reforms produce enough workers quickly.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved with corrections · Priya Shah — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The main figures are supported by the CSJ analysis and the underlying HMRC publication. The wording was corrected to distinguish payrolled employments from people and to avoid implying that the data prove jobs were taken from British citizens.
- confirmed PAYE payrolled employments increased by about 3.7 million between 2014 and the end of 2025. — This is the central figure in the CSJ analysis based on HMRC data. source
- confirmed British nationals accounted for 734,000 of the increase, EU nationals for 408,000 and non-EU nationals for about 2.5 million. — These figures are published by the CSJ and sum to the reported increase after rounding. source
- confirmed The HMRC data cover PAYE employments and exclude self-employment. — The official methodology states this limitation explicitly. source
- confirmed One employee can have more than one payrolled employment. — HMRC warns that employment counts can exceed employee counts because people may hold multiple employments. source
- confirmed The nationality data are not updated after naturalisation or a change of nationality. — This is set out in the HMRC limitations and definitions section. source
- confirmed Non-EU payroll positions rose by 2.1 million and out-of-work benefit recipients rose by 2.3 million between 2020 and 2025. — Both figures appear in the CSJ analysis; the article correctly presents them as parallel changes rather than a causal relationship. source
- confirmed Health and social work accounted for 29 per cent of the increase in non-EU nationals on payrolls. — The sector breakdown is given in the CSJ release and is consistent with the HMRC sector data. source
- confirmed The UK issued 42,658 Health and Care Worker visas in the year ending March 2026, 38 per cent fewer than the previous year. — The Home Office immigration statistics give both the total and annual change. source
- uncertain The figures show that individual jobs were taken from British citizens. — Neither the PAYE employment counts nor the CSJ analysis establishes that counterfactual; the article removes that implication. source
1 correction(s) applied
- Was: Four out of five new UK jobs created over past decade taken by foreign workers rather than British citizensNow: The CSJ analysis found that non-British nationals accounted for most of the increase in PAYE payrolled employments between 2014 and 2025; it does not show that individual jobs were taken from British citizens. (The source counts payrolled employments rather than unique people, excludes self-employment and does not establish a counterfactual about who would otherwise have been hired.)
Editor's note
The CSJ figures and the underlying HMRC methodology are clear. The dataset counts PAYE employments rather than unique people, excludes self-employment, and does not prove that migration caused rising worklessness; no government or employer response was identified in the open sources checked.Sources
- Just one in five added payroll jobs since 2014 went to British nationals — Centre for Social Justice
- UK payrolled employments by nationality, region, industry, age and sex, from July 2014 to December 2025 — HM Revenue and Customs, GOV.UK
- Why do people come to the UK? Work — Home Office, GOV.UK
More on this in other media
- iNews — „labour market”
- BBC News — „labour market”
- The Guardian — „labour market”