Pacific storm region sets record as El Niño strengthens
New forecasts point to an unusually powerful El Niño, but its effects on Britain remain uncertain.
El Niño is continuing to strengthen, with the latest US forecasts giving an 83% chance of a historically strong event between October and December. Scientists have also reported record-breaking activity in the hurricane region of the eastern and central Pacific, while warning that climate change is amplifying some storm risks.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on 8 October that sea-surface temperature anomalies in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific had exceeded 4°C. The Niño-3.4 index reached 2.1°C, while the agency said there was an 83% chance that the event would exceed the strength of previous El Niño episodes recorded since 1950.
El Niño is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific that alters atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns around the world. NOAA expects strong to very strong conditions to persist during the January-to-March period in 2027, but its forecast describes probabilities rather than certainty about the eventual peak or the precise effects on individual countries.
The immediate record concerns Pacific storms. The Associated Press reported that accumulated cyclone energy — a measure combining storm strength and duration — had surpassed the previous record for the area east of the international date line. Meteorologists said the region was also approaching a record for the number of days on which a hurricane was present.
El Niño can favour Pacific hurricanes by reducing wind shear that would otherwise weaken developing systems. The same broad pattern tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, although other influences, including unusually warm seas and climate change, also affect individual storms.
A new rapid attribution study published by World Weather Attribution examined Hurricane Polo, which intensified rapidly in September before making landfall in Mexico. The researchers estimated that climate change made the conditions supporting the storm’s potential intensity about 23 times as likely, while the current El Niño made them about 14 times as likely as under neutral conditions.
The study also cautioned that its rainfall findings were less certain: the models did not reproduce observed trends well enough to quantify climate change’s contribution to the storm’s rainfall. The authors said the results should therefore be read as an assessment of the evidence, not as a precise prediction of future storms.
For the UK, the Met Office has said El Niño can raise the likelihood of wetter, stormier conditions in north-west Europe during late autumn and early winter. It has also stressed that the phenomenon cannot determine Britain’s weather on its own. The strongest effects are expected elsewhere, including parts of the Americas, Asia and the Pacific, with possible consequences for food production, water supplies and disaster preparedness.
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The article separates measured conditions, forecasts and attribution results, and reflects the stated uncertainties. The reported figures and dates are supported by official or specialist sources.
- confirmed NOAA reported sea-surface temperature anomalies above 4°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific and a Niño-3.4 index of 2.1°C. — Stated in the NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. source
- confirmed NOAA put the chance of a historic event at 83% for October to December 2026. — The NOAA discussion gives an 83% probability for October–December. source
- confirmed The eastern and central Pacific hurricane region passed its previous accumulated cyclone energy record. — Reported by AP, citing meteorologists’ calculations. source
- confirmed Climate change made the conditions supporting Hurricane Polo’s potential intensity about 23 times more likely, while El Niño made them about 14 times more likely. — Main findings of the World Weather Attribution study. source
- confirmed The World Weather Attribution study could not quantify climate change’s contribution to Hurricane Polo’s rainfall. — The study says its models did not represent observed rainfall trends sufficiently well. source
- confirmed The Met Office says El Niño can increase the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions in north-west Europe, including the UK. — Stated in the Met Office’s official analysis, alongside a warning that El Niño does not determine UK weather by itself. source
Editor's note
The strengthening forecast and Pacific storm record are well supported by NOAA and AP. The UK implications remain probabilistic, while the Hurricane Polo attribution study includes substantial uncertainty around rainfall effects.Sources
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- Pacific hurricane region sets record for big, long-lasting storms thanks to El Niño — AP News
- Effect of climate change at least as large as El Niño in strengthening Hurricane Polo — World Weather Attribution
- An ‘unprecedented’ El Niño and its implications for the weather forecast — Met Office
More on this in other media
- Sky News — „el niño”
- BBC News — „el niño”
- The Guardian — „el niño”