The Vector

THG raises profit outlook as whey prices fall

The Myprotein owner says stronger nutrition sales and easing ingredient costs are improving its 2026 prospects.

British e-commerce group THG has raised its forecast for adjusted operating profit after stronger trading in its Myprotein nutrition division and a sharp correction in whey prices. The company now expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA of £103m, ahead of analyst expectations.

THG said in a third-quarter trading statement that its full-year adjusted EBITDA expectation had risen to £103m. That compares with a company-compiled analyst consensus of £101.7m, according to Reuters, although the figure remains management guidance rather than a final audited result.

The improvement was driven mainly by THG Nutrition, which includes Myprotein. The division generated £152.4m of revenue in the three months to 30 September, up 5.3% year on year, or 10.8% excluding Asia. Myprotein-branded unit volumes increased by 36.2% during the quarter.

Whey protein is a major input for the business. THG said prices for WPC80, a commonly traded whey concentrate, had fallen by about 20% since its 10 September interim-results announcement. The company said the change created more favourable conditions for margins in its nutrition business in 2027.

The fall in ingredient costs follows a period in which high global demand for protein products had pushed whey prices sharply higher. Reuters reported that THG attributed the recent easing to increased supply and greater substitution between products, while the company said it had secured fourth-quarter requirements on better terms than in the third quarter.

Across the group, revenue for the quarter was £408.8m on a continuing, constant-currency basis, representing growth of 1.5%. THG said its core brands and markets, which account for about 87% of group revenue, grew by 6.1% year on year. The company expects fourth-quarter growth to accelerate as delayed beauty advent-calendar deliveries are recognised.

THG also said it remained on course to generate positive free cash flow for the first time since its 2020 flotation, with an expected range of £25m to £35m for 2026. It is continuing work to manage the effect of EU duty and tariff changes, which it expects to implement in the second quarter of its 2027 financial year.

The update gives investors a clearer view of the improvement in the cost picture, but it does not remove the risks of currency movements, consumer demand and commodity-price volatility. The next significant test will be whether higher nutrition volumes and lower whey costs are sustained beyond the current quarter rather than simply reflecting a favourable point in the cycle.

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